Financial pundits and talking heads are scared to say the “R” word, in part because the psychology of worrying about a recession often drives the downward spiral into one.

I don’t trust financial pundits and talking heads. I trust taxi cab drivers. I am not a frequent cab-taker, but occasionally I’ll take one if I am heading to Logan for a trip or running late to a lunch meeting in Cambridge and can’t wait for the T. I guess I probably take a taxi twice a month, and while 24 samples is not statistically significant, it’s good enough for me to conclude we’re in a recession and have been for a while.

When cabbies tell me their business is down 75% from a year ago, that they’re losing their houses and hording cash to last through the tough times, I can’t help but think that startups ought to follow their example. More on this in a moment.

We have been trying to figure out the impact of the sub-prime mess (Click here for a primer on the crisis) and its affiliated fallout on our startups. The first order effects are obvious to the naked eye:

1. •Expecting that all their customer’s budgets will be cut and under great scrutiny, companies in any sector who depend on selling to large US-based retail banks that had mortgage exposure ought to re-plan their 2008 forecasts and take those plans down.
   

2. •Expecting that jitters throughout the economy will put greater pressure on earning, enterprise software companies selling into corporate America that are not in the top 3 priorities for CIOs, ought to plan for a very cold year.
   

The second-order effects on consumer mobile, consumer Internet, video for both and all the other over-heated VC-backed sectors are a little harder to crystal ball.

1. If Dierdre Six-Pack loses her job, which will she cancel first, her HBO subscription or her broadband?
   

I bet that this time, it may be a toss up. That being said, too many companies have been funded by guys who look like me banking on eyeballs and strong rates for click-through and CPMs. If ad placements fall or simply stall for Internet/mobile and CPC & CPM’s dive (too early), the results could be very harmful to these little companies who need to show strong progress toward profitability as the runway from their last VC round disappears.

Mind you, I am still very upbeat about the prospects in consumer-focused technology sectors, but think it’s prudent for startups to contemplate direct and indirect effects on their business right now. And take the advice of the cabbies and get some cash into your mattress:

1. •Protect the cash you have on your balance sheet by examining your plan, taking out costs that are just too speculative
   

2. •If you are in the midst of a VC fund-raising, if you are able, take a little more money than you were planning, even if it means a little more dilution
   

3. •If you are able to raise money (equity, debt, NRE) do it.
   

I don’t think this will be a nuclear-winter of the year 2000 variety, but will be more specific to certain sectors. If I am wrong, you have only done the things you should have been doing in the first place.